The 43rd Session of the BC Legislature promises to be a masterclass in procedure and brinksmanship. With a bare majority, the BCNDP face several challenges and will need to manoeuvre very carefully in order to maintain power.
While many equate this legislature to that of 2017, there are some key differences between the two circumstances.
Unlike 2017, the NDP has managed to secure enough seats that it does not need the support of the Greens to claim a majority. Nevertheless, once they account for the loss of a member to the Speaker’s chair, the remaining two seat advantage will have them courting the support of the Greens wherever they can get it.
While the Speaker must vote in the case of a tie, they are expected to follow Parliamentary convention by voting to allow the continuation of debate. When confronted with a tie vote at third reading of a Bill (final vote) they must vote in the negative allowing the Bill to be reintroduced at a future session (Parliamentary Procedure in British Columbia, Fifth Edition, Chapter 4).
The most vexing challenge for the Government caucus will be ensuring MLAs are present to vote. The experience of “House Duty” will no doubt be an eye opener for rookie members but even returning MLAs and Ministers will bristle at the new normal when they are confronted by profound restrictions on their activities while the House is in Session. Updated Standing Orders allow for remote participation of MLAs, but it would be a monumental gamble for Government to trust its legislative agenda and in some cases its very existence to an absent member who must log on in time to vote.
Given the inherent risks, expect to see Government spend the minimum time necessary in the Legislature. To the extent they are able, Government will take care of business through Orders in Council at the Cabinet table. They can still accomplish a fair amount, but it will significantly reduce the opportunities for the Opposition to challenge their actions.
What does this mean for the opposition parties? For the Conservatives, it provides them some time and space to define their agenda and build public awareness and support for their issues. For the Greens, they will have significant influence over the government agenda but given that they do not hold the balance of power, they will have to carefully consider how far they push at risk of getting no concessions.
The new reality for both Government and Opposition caucus is the influence of individual MLAs. In a Legislature operating on the basis of a two-seat majority, the views of two or three caucus members can quickly upend the most carefully planned positioning. It won’t take long for new members and returning ones to realize the “back bench” has moved nearer the front.
For those of us who deal with government on a frequent basis, shifting to more nimble approaches will be key. Strategic relationships (targeted contacts with Ministers, key civil servants, Opposition critics and local MLAs) will matter more than ever. Engaging with all sides in the Legislature will be necessary to move issues forward. Importantly, the bureaucracy will also wield more influence than ever, given the likelihood of an increase in Cabinet level decision making. But that is for another day.